Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from August 5, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 3, 2026 — -26.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$378.96 Published $416.86 Target $280.03 Window close $384.48 Peak
$350.00 – $370.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$378.96Published — price the day we called it
$416.86Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$280.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 15% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-26.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+1.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-1.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$280.03
last close inside the window, ended November 3, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$416.86
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$350.00 – $370.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$378.96
published August 5, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet's core businesses - search, YouTube and cloud - earn reliably and profitably, and the stock looks reasonably priced for that quality. Recent headlines do not give a clear short-term reason to push the stock higher, and heavy spending on AI could make investors cautious. Upward trend is present but stretched, so confidence is moderate.

Primary drivers

  • Search and ad business earns consistently and supports cash flow
  • Cloud expansion and AI work create new ways to make money
  • High profit margins and steady delivery of earnings
  • Valuation is fair relative to the company's quality

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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