Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from August 5, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 3, 2026 — +20.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,172.79 Published $1,299.93 Target $1,409.38 Window close $1,449.68 Peak
$1,131.75 – $1,166.65Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,172.79Published — price the day we called it
$1,299.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,449.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,409.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 76 days.

At window close
+20.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+23.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-1.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$1,409.38
last close inside the window, ended November 3, 2026
Peak price
$1,449.68
peak on October 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
76

The thesis — published August 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,299.93
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,131.75 – $1,166.65
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,172.79
published August 5, 2026
Confidence
81%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly mixes steady demand for health-care products with very strong sales of its obesity and diabetes medicines and reliable profit performance. Recent results showed more units sold offset falling prices, helping near-term outlook. The stock is near trend support so a bounce is possible, but negative price momentum, high valuation, debt and pricing pressure limit how far it can run.

Primary drivers

  • Strong, ongoing demand for obesity and diabetes drugs
  • Higher company guidance improves short-term earnings clarity
  • Stable health-care demand and steady profit delivery
  • Price weakness near trend support can enable a bounce

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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