Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from August 4, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 2, 2026 — -4.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$211.41 Published $249.46 Target $202.06 Window close $243.37 Peak
$200.00 – $208.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$211.41Published — price the day we called it
$249.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$243.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$202.06Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 84% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-4.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+15.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-2.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$202.06
last close inside the window, ended November 2, 2026
Peak price
$243.37
peak on October 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$249.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$200.00 – $208.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$211.41
published August 4, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA leads the market for AI processors, has very high profits, reliable earnings, and a strong cash position. The chip sector rallied then pulled back, creating crowded expectations. High trading activity, policy uncertainty, and elevated hopes mean the opportunity looks more compelling if the share price drops first, lowering crowding risk.

Primary drivers

  • Leadership in AI chips keeps data-center demand strong
  • High profit margins and a large net cash position
  • Reliable delivery on earnings supports the growth story
  • Sector swings and policy risk make timing sensitive

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals