Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from August 16, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 14, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$700.20 Published $839.01 Target $1,025.28 Window close $1,033.62 Peak
$687.98 – $702.93Entry zone — fair-value band
$700.20Published — price the day we called it
$839.01Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,033.62Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,025.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 48 days.

Peak price
$1,033.62
peak on November 14, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+47.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,025.28
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
48
Window
August 16, 2025 – November 14, 2025

The thesis — published August 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$839.01
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$687.98 – $702.93
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$700.20
published August 16, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly dropped 14% after its pill version of a weight-loss drug disappointed high hopes. Even so, its obesity business is still strong. A lower price target and a rival's broader drug label weighed on mood, but demand and results remain solid, with revenue up 38%. The share price looks weak short term, but over the next 3 months we expect a bounce as investors refocus on factory capacity and insurance coverage that support steady demand.

Primary drivers

  • Stock fell 14% on news; short-term drop may offer a better entry price.
  • Business and demand look healthy, keeping long-term interest strong.
  • Updates on factory output and insurance coverage could unlock more sales.
  • Wait for the price to calm and start improving before building a position.

How it played out

LLY: target reached in 48 days

Lyra published LLY at $700.20 on 2025-08-16 with 20% expected growth and a $839.01 target. The thesis pointed to a 14% drop after disappointment around a pill version of a weight-loss drug, but also to healthy demand, 38% revenue growth, factory capacity, and insurance coverage as reasons a bounce could happen within 3 months.

Inside the window, LLY reached the target in 48 days. The peak was $1033.62 on 2025-11-14, with a 47.6% gain. It ended at $1025.28, still above the target. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On Oct. 30, 2025, Investors.com reported that Eli Lilly beat third-quarter expectations and raised its full-year outlook.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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