Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) — closed signal from July 3, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 3, 2025
On 3 Jul the Federal Reserve scrapped a rule that had kept Wells Fargo from growing since 2018. Now the bank can finally lend and take deposits without that limit. After the news, the share price pushed above $82 on more than twice the usual trading volume, a sign many buyers rushed in. Even after the jump the stock still costs less than most rivals. The 15 Jul earnings call should confirm stronger loan and interest income, which could lift shares to the $88-$90 range in the next few months.
Primary drivers
- Fed removed growth limit on 3 Jul, letting Wells Fargo grow its balance sheet again.
- Trading volume was over twice normal, signalling large investors are buying in.
- Shares trade at 10.4 times earnings versus peers at 11.8, suggesting price catch-up potential.
- 15 Jul earnings will reveal if loan growth and interest income are picking up speed.
How it played out
WFC: the target was not reached
Lyra published WFC on 2025-07-03 at $82.68, with expected growth of 12% and a target of $91.58. The thesis pointed to the Fed removing the growth limit on 3 Jul, volume running over twice normal, a 10.4 times earnings multiple versus peers at 11.8, and the 15 Jul earnings call as a check on loan growth and interest income.
Inside the window, WFC peaked at $86.21 on 2025-09-23, a 4.3% gain. It stayed below the target and ended at $80.45. The thesis partly played out in price direction, but it missed the target. It never got there.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-15, Wells Fargo reported second-quarter results, and coverage said the bank lowered its 2025 net interest income outlook to roughly match 2024's $47.7 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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