Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from August 3, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 1, 2026 — -1.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$14.34 Published $15.93 Target $14.14 Window close $15.03 Peak
$13.58 – $14.22Entry zone — fair-value band
$14.34Published — price the day we called it
$15.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.03Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 40% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-1.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+4.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-0%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$14.14
last close inside the window, ended November 1, 2026
Peak price
$15.03
peak on August 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$15.93
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$13.58 – $14.22
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$14.34
published August 3, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National looks like a cheap regional bank that could recover because sales, loans, deposits, and profits are improving. Recent results showed loan and core deposit gains, but rising funding costs, possible loan problems, and pressure on interest margins are real risks. Shares look oversold, so the $13.80-$14.45 area is a cautious rebound zone.

Primary drivers

  • Commercial loan growth expands interest-earning assets
  • More core deposits reduce reliance on costly funding
  • Higher revenue and margins improve operating leverage
  • Loan quality and deposit pricing are main downside risks

How it played out

VLY: the 12% rebound thesis missed its target

Lyra published VLY at $14.34 with an expected gain of 12% and a $15.93 target. The thesis pointed to improving sales, loans, deposits, and profits. It also cited commercial loan growth, more core deposits, and higher revenue and margins, while noting funding costs, loan quality, deposit pricing, and pressure on interest margins as risks.

The shares rose to a peak of $15.03 on August 14, a gain of 4.8%. They stayed below the $15.93 target throughout the window and ended at $14.14 on November 1. The rebound partially played out early, but the published 12% thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On October 22, 2026, Valley National Bancorp reported third-quarter net income of $206.3 million and diluted earnings of $0.36 per common share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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