Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from August 3, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 1, 2026 — +2.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$199.29 Published $239.15 Target $204.64 Window close $243.37 Peak
$190.00 – $200.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$199.29Published — price the day we called it
$239.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$243.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$204.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 63 days.

At window close
+2.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+22.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-0%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$204.64
last close inside the window, ended November 1, 2026
Peak price
$243.37
peak on October 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
63

The thesis — published August 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$239.15
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$190.00 – $200.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$199.29
published August 3, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA still has very strong demand from artificial intelligence, high profit margins, and a lot of cash. But recent weakness across chip companies means heavy selling might be investors cutting risk rather than a lasting turnaround. If the chip sector calms over the next three months, the $190-$200 area looks like a better place to consider exposure.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand for high-speed computing boosts sales and profits
  • Top margins and net cash give financial flexibility
  • Cloud providers have large orders that support future demand
  • Wider chip-sector selling creates near-term tactical risk

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 63 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 20% growth from a price of $199.29. The thesis pointed to demand for high-speed computing, high margins and net cash, large cloud-provider orders, and the risk from wider chip-sector selling. It identified the $190 to $200 area as the entry zone.

The price reached the $239.15 target in 63 days. It peaked at $243.37 on October 6, a gain of 22.1%. By the end of the window, it had fallen to $204.64. The thesis played out within the stated period, although most of the gain was gone by the close.

What happened during the window

On August 26, NVIDIA reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier. It also reported data center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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