Track record · closed signal

PROG Holdings Inc (PRG) — closed signal from August 3, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 1, 2026 — -24.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PRG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$45.88 Published $52.13 Target $34.75 Window close $46.35 Peak
$42.71 – $44.70Entry zone — fair-value band
$45.88Published — price the day we called it
$52.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$46.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$34.75Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 7% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-24.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-0%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$34.75
last close inside the window, ended November 1, 2026
Peak price
$46.35
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$52.13
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$42.71 – $44.70
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$45.88
published August 3, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

PROG's recent results show repeated earnings beats, rising sales and resumed buybacks, which support higher profit estimates and returning cash to shareholders. Leasing activity is improving, but higher-than-normal write-offs make credit risk the main concern, and the company's debt limits how far losses can be absorbed.

Primary drivers

  • Consistent earnings beats push profit estimates higher
  • Resumed buybacks directly increase value per share
  • Rising leasing volume signals improving business momentum
  • Higher lease write-offs and debt heighten downside risk

How it played out

PRG: the 14% thesis missed its target

Lyra published a short-term thesis for PRG at $45.88, with 14% expected growth and a $52.13 target. The thesis pointed to repeated earnings beats, rising sales, resumed buybacks and improving leasing activity. It also identified higher lease write-offs and debt as the main risks.

Inside the window, PRG reached its $46.35 peak on August 5, a 1% gain. It never reached the $52.13 target. By November 1, the stock had fallen to $34.75. The published thesis missed: the expected rise did not occur, and the signal ended well below both the publication price and target.

What happened during the window

On October 28, 2026, PROG reported third-quarter revenue of $725.8 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.92.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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