Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from August 3, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 1, 2026 — -25% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$373.21 Published $425.46 Target $279.84 Window close $384.48 Peak
$350.00 – $365.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$373.21Published — price the day we called it
$425.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$279.84Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-25%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-0%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$279.84
last close inside the window, ended November 1, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$425.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$350.00 – $365.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$373.21
published August 3, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet combines steady revenue from search, YouTube, and cloud with very strong profits and lots of cash. That cash gives the company room to invest in AI without needing to take on risky borrowing, so it is more protected if AI spending gets bumpy. Recent price action is positive but a bit stretched, so a pullback near $350-$365 is a cleaner chance to participate while keeping exposure to the post-earnings trend. The mix of durable cash generation and AI positioning is why the setup looks attractive despite near-term price extension.

Primary drivers

  • Search, YouTube and cloud provide steady, varied sources of cash
  • High profitability and net cash let the company fund AI work without risky borrowing
  • Gemini expansion helps sell AI tools to businesses and deepen enterprise reach
  • Shares rallied after earnings, so a pullback offers a cleaner entry opportunity

How it played out

GOOGL: the 14% growth thesis missed

Lyra published GOOGL at $373.21 with expected growth of 14% and a $425.46 target. The thesis pointed to steady cash from Search, YouTube and cloud, high profitability and net cash, Gemini expansion, and the prospect of a cleaner entry after the post-earnings rally.

The shares peaked at $384.48 on August 5, a gain of 3%. They never reached the target. GOOGL ended the window at $279.84 on November 1. The published thesis did not play out within the short-term window.

What happened during the window

On October 28, 2026, Alphabet reported third-quarter revenue of $127.6 billion, up 25%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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