Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 30, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 28, 2026 — +11.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$193.18 Published $224.09 Target $215.38 Window close $243.37 Peak
$186.00 – $194.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$193.18Published — price the day we called it
$224.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$243.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$215.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 8 days.

At window close
+11.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+26%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$215.38
last close inside the window, ended October 28, 2026
Peak price
$243.37
peak on October 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
8

The thesis — published July 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$224.09
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$186.00 – $194.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$193.18
published July 30, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA remains a leader for AI hardware and software with strong profits, steady earnings, and a healthy balance sheet. No clear new company-specific news means any near-term upside will rely on the business continuing to perform and prices settling. The stock looks deeply sold, which can be constructive, but recent heavy selling and weaker investor interest keep short-term risk higher.

Primary drivers

  • Leader in fast processors and AI computing platforms
  • Growing demand for AI in data centers
  • High profit margins and strong cash position
  • Consistent delivery on earnings expectations

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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