Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG) — closed signal from July 30, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 28, 2026 — -3.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$333.04 Published $383.00 Target $321.89 Window close $381.81 Peak
$320.00 – $334.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$333.04Published — price the day we called it
$383.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$381.81Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$321.89Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 97% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-3.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+14.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$321.89
last close inside the window, ended October 28, 2026
Peak price
$381.81
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$383.00
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$320.00 – $334.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$333.04
published July 30, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet generates steady cash from search and advertising while cloud demand and enterprise AI services are expanding. New distribution of Gemini through Oracle could bring more revenue from businesses. Reported investment gains are large but not reliably repeatable, so headline profits look better than the core business. The stock pulled back below the short-term trend; the setup is interesting but needs clearer upward momentum to be more compelling.

Primary drivers

  • Search and advertising create steady cash flow that funds growth
  • Cloud services are growing and bring enterprise AI opportunities
  • Gemini being distributed through Oracle could expand business sales
  • Strong cash on the balance sheet keeps valuation risks limited

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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