Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from August 16, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 14, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$300.09 Published $343.61 Target $319.71 Window close $378.46 Peak
$287.43 – $297.18Entry zone — fair-value band
$300.09Published — price the day we called it
$343.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$378.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$319.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 26 days.

Peak price
$378.46
peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+26.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$319.71
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
26
Window
August 16, 2025 – November 14, 2025

The thesis — published August 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$343.61
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$287.43 – $297.18
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$300.09
published August 16, 2025
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Berkshire revealed it bought 5 million shares, signaling confidence and drawing fresh attention. Price looks strong with lots more people buying than usual and the recent average price rising, but the stock seems hot short term, so waiting for small dips makes sense. Over the next few months, UnitedHealth's size and Optum cash can keep momentum, while policy headlines remain the key risk.

Primary drivers

  • Berkshire buying adds trusted backing and draws more investor attention.
  • Price trend is up, and the recent average price is climbing quickly.
  • Unusually heavy trading shows many more buyers stepping in than usual.
  • Large scale and steady cash from Optum help support ongoing performance.

How it played out

UNH: target reached in 26 days

On 2025-08-16, Lyra published a short-term UNH thesis at $300.09. It expected 16% growth, with a target of $343.61. The thesis pointed to Berkshire buying 5 million shares, a rising price trend, unusually heavy trading, and support from UnitedHealth's scale and Optum cash. It also noted policy headlines as the key risk.

Inside the window from 2025-08-16 to 2025-11-14, UNH reached the target in 26 days. The stock later peaked at $378.46 on 2025-10-28, a 26.1% gain. It ended the window at $319.71. The thesis played out, even though the final price was below the peak.

What happened during the window

On October 28, 2025, MarketWatch reported that UnitedHealth posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue, raised its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $16.25, and said its medical care ratio was 89.9%. The same day, Investopedia reported that UnitedHealth raised its full-year outlook to at least $16.25 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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