Track record · closed signal

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) — closed signal from July 29, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 27, 2026 — +2.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$291.45 Published $322.01 Target $299.88 Window close $312.70 Peak
$281.38 – $291.29Entry zone — fair-value band
$291.45Published — price the day we called it
$322.01Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$312.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$299.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 66% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+2.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$299.88
last close inside the window, ended October 27, 2026
Peak price
$312.70
peak on August 26, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$322.01
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$281.38 – $291.29
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$291.45
published July 29, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Union Pacific runs a strong freight railroad with healthy profits and a recent earnings beat. A proposed deal with Norfolk Southern could add upside after filings that improve customer protections, but the deal might be weakened or blocked. Near-term price action sits at support, yet low buying interest and event risk limit conviction.

Primary drivers

  • Rail economics keep profits steady and predictable
  • Recent earnings show the business is executing well
  • Customer protection filings could help the merger case
  • Regulatory questions and debt limit near-term upside

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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