Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG) — closed signal from July 28, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 26, 2026 — -3.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$325.27 Published $383.82 Target $314.19 Window close $381.81 Peak
$310.00 – $326.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$325.27Published — price the day we called it
$383.82Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$381.81Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$314.19Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 97% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-3.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+17.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$314.19
last close inside the window, ended October 26, 2026
Peak price
$381.81
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 28, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$383.82
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$310.00 – $326.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$325.27
published July 28, 2026
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet combines fast growth, strong profits, and a large cash balance with a reasonable price for a very large tech company. The stock has fallen below its short-term trend, but many more people are selling than usual, so a clear price stabilisation is needed. Reports that Reddit may stop a data license add risk to AI-related data and referrals.

Primary drivers

  • Search, YouTube and cloud continue to grow revenue streams
  • Strong profit margins and plenty of cash on the balance sheet
  • Price looks reasonable for a very large tech platform
  • Uncertainty around Reddit licensing could hurt AI data and referrals

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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