Track record · closed signal

GE Aerospace (GE) — closed signal from July 27, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 25, 2026 — -21.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$362.49 Published $395.11 Target $285.64 Window close $388.84 Peak
$350.00 – $363.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$362.49Published — price the day we called it
$395.11Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$388.84Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$285.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 81% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-21.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$285.64
last close inside the window, ended October 25, 2026
Peak price
$388.84
peak on August 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$395.11
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$350.00 – $363.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$362.49
published July 27, 2026
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

GE Aerospace has a lot of orders waiting to be turned into work, steady demand for engine service and historically consistent results. Recent reports confirmed strong commercial demand yet highlighted a rich stock price, squeezed profit margins, and another drop after results. The main near-term questions are whether margins recover and backlog turns into revenue; those uncertainties keep conviction moderate.

Primary drivers

  • A long list of booked engine orders waiting to be delivered
  • Steady revenue from servicing and spare parts for engines
  • Demand for commercial aircraft that drives new engine sales
  • Recovery of profit margins as backlog converts to revenue

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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