Track record · closed signal

Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from July 24, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 22, 2026 — -3.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ONB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$25.41 – $26.06Entry zone — fair-value band

$26.16Published — price the day we called it

$28.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$27.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$25.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-3.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$25.16

last close inside the window, ended October 22, 2026

Peak price

$27.21

peak on August 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$28.36

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$25.41 – $26.06

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$26.16

published July 24, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Old National has been growing its core business and reporting record adjusted profits with repeated quarterly beats. Loan and fee gains and steady buybacks and dividends show capital discipline. Recent charge-offs were controlled, which helps the expansion story. Shares look oversold but weak momentum and low trading volume make timing uncertain.

Primary drivers

Rising loans and fees strengthen the bank's regular profits
Record adjusted results show consistent business execution
Buybacks and dividends indicate disciplined use of capital
Controlled credit losses help limit downside during stress

How it played out

ONB: the 9% target was not reached

Lyra published ONB at $26.16 with expected growth of 9% and a $28.36 target. The thesis pointed to rising loans and fees, record adjusted results, buybacks and dividends, and controlled credit losses. It also noted weak momentum and low trading volume as timing risks.

ONB reached its window high of $27.21 on August 4, a 4% peak gain. It stayed below the target throughout the window. By October 22, the stock had fallen to $25.16. The published thesis did not play out within the short-term window.

What happened during the window

On October 21, 2026, Old National reported third-quarter net income applicable to common shares of $250.0 million and diluted earnings of $0.66 per share. It also reported end-of-period loans of $51.2 billion.

Old National Bancorp Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Results

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ONB signals