Track record · closed signal

GE Aerospace (GE) — closed signal from July 24, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 22, 2026 — -17.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$355.65 Published $394.77 Target $293.54 Window close $388.84 Peak
$347.00 – $356.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$355.65Published — price the day we called it
$394.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$388.84Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$293.54Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 85% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-17.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$293.54
last close inside the window, ended October 22, 2026
Peak price
$388.84
peak on August 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 24, 2026

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$394.77
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$347.00 – $356.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$355.65
published July 24, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

GE Aerospace combines steady profit performance with clear demand for both commercial and defense engines. Large commitments announced at Farnborough strengthen the long-term service revenue outlook, and recent overselling suggests a chance to rally near trend support. Near-term limits include downward price momentum, low trading volume, possible supply-chain hiccups, and a high valuation.

Primary drivers

  • Large engine orders give multi-year service revenue visibility
  • Aftermarket work provides steady, repeat revenue
  • Regular strong earnings build trust in execution
  • Mix of commercial and defense demand increases backlog stability

How it played out

GE: the thesis only partially played out

Lyra published an 11% growth thesis from $355.65, with a target of $394.77. The thesis pointed to large engine orders, recurring aftermarket work, regular strong earnings, and demand across commercial and defense markets. It also noted weak price momentum, low trading volume, supply-chain risks, and a high valuation.

GE rose to a peak of $388.84 on August 6, a gain of 9.3%. That was close to the expected move, but the stock stayed below the target throughout the window. It ended at $293.54 on October 22. The thesis partially played out early, then missed by the end of the measurement period.

What happened during the window

On October 20, 2026, GE Aerospace reported third-quarter orders of $19.0 billion, up 49%, and revenue of $14.1 billion, up 16%. The company also raised its full-year guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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