Track record · closed signal

Amphenol Corporation (APH) — closed signal from July 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 21, 2026 — -0.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

APH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$79.42 Published $44.40 Target $79.20 Window close $89.93 Peak
$37.88 – $39.38Entry zone — fair-value band
$79.42Published — price the day we called it
$44.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$89.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$79.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 75 days.

At window close
-0.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+13.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$79.20
last close inside the window, ended October 21, 2026
Peak price
$89.93
peak on October 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
75

The thesis — published July 23, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$44.40
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$37.88 – $39.38
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$79.42
published July 23, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amphenol sells the parts that let data centers, cars, planes and factories connect and work together. Demand from AI-related data centers is strong, and the company has steady profit track record. However, the stock looks pricey versus fair value and carries debt, so short-term confidence is cautious despite stabilization near recent trend.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand for data-center connectors tied to AI
  • Revenue spread across aerospace, automotive and industrial markets
  • Regular, predictable profit performance over time
  • Stock trades at a premium versus recent fair-value work

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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