Track record · closed signal

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) — closed signal from July 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 21, 2026 — -23.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

KTOS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$50.58 Published $56.65 Target $38.74 Window close $67.10 Peak
$48.00 – $51.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$50.58Published — price the day we called it
$56.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$67.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$38.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 13 days.

At window close
-23.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+32.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$38.74
last close inside the window, ended October 21, 2026
Peak price
$67.10
peak on August 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
13

The thesis — published July 23, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$56.65
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$48.00 – $51.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$50.58
published July 23, 2026
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Kratos is a speculative short-term defense play tied to drones and other national-security work. An earnings report in August is a clear event that could confirm progress. Recent profit reports and a net-cash position make the business more resilient. However, trading is light, profit margins are slim and the stock trades at a very high valuation, so there is limited room for setbacks.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand for drones and unmanned systems in defense
  • August earnings report that could confirm execution
  • Consistent history of reporting profits
  • Cash on the balance sheet to fund programs

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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