Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from July 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 21, 2026 — +9.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,162.70 Published $1,267.34 Target $1,270.75 Window close $1,311.75 Peak
$1,125.00 – $1,165.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,162.70Published — price the day we called it
$1,267.34Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,311.75Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,270.75Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 27 days.

At window close
+9.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$1,270.75
last close inside the window, ended October 21, 2026
Peak price
$1,311.75
peak on October 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
27

The thesis — published July 23, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,267.34
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,125.00 – $1,165.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,162.70
published July 23, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lilly looks strong for the next few months because its diabetes and obesity drugs are selling fast and earnings keep beating expectations. New late-stage success for retatrutide makes the obesity drug lineup more durable. The stock may stabilize after a recent pullback near its recent average price, but a high valuation, low trading interest, debt and weak sentiment cap how far it can rise.

Primary drivers

  • Big and fast-growing demand for metabolic medicines
  • Late-stage retatrutide success widening obesity options
  • Reliable earnings and healthy profit margins
  • Healthcare status offers defense in weak markets

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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