Track record · closed signal

Arista Networks (ANET) — closed signal from July 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 20, 2026 — +4.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ANET price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$165.00 – $174.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$173.70Published — price the day we called it

$192.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$217.41Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$181.19Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 13 days.

At window close

+4.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+25.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$181.19

last close inside the window, ended October 20, 2026

Peak price

$217.41

peak on October 9, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+11%

over the measurement window

Target price

$192.80

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$165.00 – $174.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$173.70

published July 22, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Arista looks well positioned because demand for AI-focused and cloud networking is strong, profits are healthy, and the company has no debt. New AI-driven security products and an upcoming earnings report create clear near-term events. But the stock has weak buying activity and a high valuation, so it can drop quickly if guidance disappoints.

Primary drivers

Growing demand for AI and cloud networking
No debt and ample cash on the balance sheet
Reliable earnings and high profit margins
New AI-driven security product and upcoming report

How it played out

ANET: target reached in 13 days

On July 22, 2026, Lyra published a short-term thesis for ANET at 173.70, expecting 11% growth toward 192.80. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence and cloud networking, healthy profits, no debt, ample cash, and a new security product ahead of an earnings report.

Within the window, ANET reached 192.80 in 13 days. It later peaked at 217.41 on October 9, 2026, a 25.2% gain. The peak was above the target. By October 20, 2026, the price had fallen to 181.19, but it still ended above the publication price. The thesis played out fully.

What happened during the window

On August 4, 2026, Arista reported second-quarter revenue of $3.036 billion and diluted earnings per share of $0.95. On October 7, 2026, it announced rack-scale Ethernet architectures for artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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