Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from July 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 20, 2026 — +10.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,163.36 Published $1,279.70 Target $1,283.66 Window close $1,311.75 Peak
$1,125.00 – $1,165.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,163.36Published — price the day we called it
$1,279.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,311.75Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,283.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

At window close
+10.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$1,283.66
last close inside the window, ended October 20, 2026
Peak price
$1,311.75
peak on October 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
28

The thesis — published July 22, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,279.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,125.00 – $1,165.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,163.36
published July 22, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly is growing fast because its drugs, especially for diabetes and obesity, are selling strongly and earnings keep meeting expectations. A confirmed quarterly report and higher revenue forecast create a clear short-term event that could move the price. However, recent price action shows weakness and few buyers, and the stock is expensive with some balance-sheet and guidance risks.

Primary drivers

  • High demand for diabetes and obesity drugs driving sales
  • Consistent earnings beats and higher revenue guidance
  • A coming quarterly report provides a clear short-term event
  • Shares tend to hold up better when markets fall, providing defensive traits

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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