Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 22, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 20, 2026 — +4.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$207.11 Published $244.39 Target $216.47 Window close $243.37 Peak
$198.00 – $207.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$207.11Published — price the day we called it
$244.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$243.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$216.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 97% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+4.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+17.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$216.47
last close inside the window, ended October 20, 2026
Peak price
$243.37
peak on October 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 22, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$244.39
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$198.00 – $207.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$207.11
published July 22, 2026
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA combines very fast recent operating growth, strong profit margins, and a healthy cash position with improving market momentum. News that NVIDIA tech is being used in surgery shows the products are spreading beyond core data-center uses, but it is not a big earnings driver. Heavy buying interest supports further gains, while volatile stock moves and crowded AI exposure leave risk of sharp multiple declines.

Primary drivers

  • Rapid revenue and profit strength that looks durable
  • Large cash balance and consistent beats on earnings
  • Growing demand for chips in AI and medical computing
  • Strong buying interest has pushed momentum higher

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals