Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from July 21, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 19, 2026 — -4.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$427.20 Published $458.55 Target $406.88 Window close $434.33 Peak
$409.94 – $424.75Entry zone — fair-value band
$427.20Published — price the day we called it
$458.55Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$434.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$406.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-4.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+1.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$406.88
last close inside the window, ended October 19, 2026
Peak price
$434.33
peak on July 21, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 21, 2026

Predicted growth
+8%
over the measurement window
Target price
$458.55
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$409.94 – $424.75
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$427.20
published July 21, 2026
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

UnitedHealth showed stronger-than-expected quarterly results and raised its full-year outlook, giving a clear reason to expect a recovery. Its business also tends to hold up well if the broader market weakens. Still, sales growth is modest, profit margins are thin, the stock looks expensive, short-term price action is weak, and trading interest is light, so the near-term case relies on the company delivering against its guidance.

Primary drivers

  • Higher full-year earnings forecast from management
  • Better-than-expected recent quarterly performance
  • Healthcare business that tends to be defensive in weakness
  • Price action after earnings points to possible recovery

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All UNH signals