Track record · closed signal

GE Vernova LLC (GEV) — closed signal from July 21, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 19, 2026 — -17.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GEV price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,095.78 Published $1,205.35 Target $908.44 Window close $1,140.99 Peak
$1,045.00 – $1,095.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,095.78Published — price the day we called it
$1,205.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,140.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$908.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-17.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+4.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$908.44
last close inside the window, ended October 19, 2026
Peak price
$1,140.99
peak on July 21, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 21, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,205.35
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,045.00 – $1,095.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,095.78
published July 21, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

GE Vernova gives exposure to AI-related demand through power and grid work rather than chips. Recent reports show growing turbine backlogs, healthy orders and positive research ahead of earnings. The long-term story looks solid, but trading is mixed: average investor interest, negative short-term momentum, high valuation and a big prior rise make near-term gains rely on price pullbacks.

Primary drivers

  • More electricity needed for data centers and cloud growth
  • Turbine orders building a longer work backlog
  • Upgrading grids and adding capacity across regions
  • Order strength improving visibility before earnings

How it played out

GEV: the 10% growth thesis did not play out

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 10% growth from $1,095.78. The thesis pointed to rising electricity demand from data centers and cloud growth, a longer turbine backlog, grid upgrades, and stronger orders before earnings. It also noted negative short-term momentum, a high valuation, and a large prior rise.

GEV peaked at $1,140.99 on July 21, a gain of 4.1%. It stayed below the $1,205.35 target throughout the window. By October 19, it had fallen to $908.44. The published growth thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On July 22, GE Vernova reported second-quarter orders of $24.2 billion and backlog growth of $13.0 billion. The company also raised its 2026 revenue and free cash flow guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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