Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 21, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 19, 2026 — +5.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$198.00 – $207.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$206.05Published — price the day we called it

$251.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$243.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$217.09Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 82% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+5.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$217.09

last close inside the window, ended October 19, 2026

Peak price

$243.37

peak on October 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 21, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$251.38

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$198.00 – $207.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$206.05

published July 21, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is growing fast because its chips and software are central to AI and data-center work. The business is profitable, has lots of cash, and keeps hitting earnings targets. Short-term price strength and heavy buying suggest momentum over the next few months. New Nebius ownership widens partnerships, but competition, crowded positioning and volatile price action limit near-term upside.

Primary drivers

Rising demand for AI processing and platform use
Strong profit margins and healthy cash on hand
Regular, reliable earnings performance
Nebius stake expands ecosystem and market interest

How it played out

NVDA: gained 18.1%, but never reached the target

Lyra published a short-term thesis at $206.05, expecting 22% growth toward $251.38. The thesis pointed to rising demand for artificial intelligence processing and platform use, strong margins and cash, reliable earnings, short-term price strength, and the Nebius stake. It also noted competition, crowded positioning, and volatile trading as limits.

Within the window, NVDA rose to a $243.37 peak on October 6, a gain of 18.1%. The shares stayed below the $251.38 target and ended at $217.09 on October 19. The thesis partially played out, but the target was never reached.

What happened during the window

On August 26, 2026, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 18% from the previous quarter and 106% from a year earlier. On September 28, 2026, its board authorized a $150 billion increase to the share repurchase program.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals