Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from July 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2026 — +7.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,168.06 Published $1,273.19 Target $1,257.03 Window close $1,292.65 Peak
$1,125.00 – $1,170.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,168.06Published — price the day we called it
$1,273.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,292.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,257.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 30 days.

At window close
+7.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+10.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$1,257.03
last close inside the window, ended October 18, 2026
Peak price
$1,292.65
peak on August 19, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
30

The thesis — published July 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,273.19
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,125.00 – $1,170.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,168.06
published July 20, 2026
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly is selling a lot of diabetes and obesity medicines, which supports strong demand and helps the company grow. Healthcare exposure adds diversification. The stock is currently cheaper than recent levels but lacks clear signs of a sustained recovery. Recent attention on tirzepatide shows big commercial reach, but safety issues in unofficial markets create concern. Short-term upside is possible but limited by high valuation and execution risk.

Primary drivers

  • Diabetes and obesity drugs are selling very well and drive revenue
  • Tirzepatide is scaling commercially and strengthens the product lineup
  • Healthcare business reduces concentration in other technology areas
  • Stock looks oversold now but the rebound lacks clear confirmation

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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