Track record · closed signal

First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) — closed signal from July 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2026 — +0.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$15.20 – $15.95Entry zone — fair-value band

$15.93Published — price the day we called it

$18.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$15.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

At window close

+0.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+39.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$15.98

last close inside the window, ended October 18, 2026

Peak price

$22.19

peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$18.79

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$15.20 – $15.95

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$15.93

published July 20, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

First Majestic is a risky way to own silver: the stock is cheap after a sell-off and trading with solid volume, and recent permits and higher forecasts give a clear reason for price to move up in the next few months. However, silver prices swing a lot, mining projects can miss targets, and earnings are uneven, so confidence in a sustained rally is low.

Primary drivers

Silver exposure gives a chance to benefit if metal prices rise
Permits at Santa Elena show visible steps toward growth
Good trading liquidity helps fund operations and moves stock
Recent sell-off and better forecasts make a short-term rebound plausible

How it played out

AG: target reached in 21 days

Lyra published AG as a risky short-term silver rebound after a sell-off. The thesis expected an 18% rise from $15.93 to $18.79. It pointed to silver exposure, permits at Santa Elena, trading liquidity, and improved forecasts, while warning that metal prices could swing and mining projects and earnings could be uneven.

Within the window, AG reached $18.79 in 21 days and later peaked at $22.19 on August 28, 2026, a 39.3% gain. It ended at $15.98 on October 18, 2026, after the peak. The short-term thesis played out because the target was reached and exceeded inside the window.

What happened during the window

On July 30, 2026, First Majestic reported its second-quarter financial results and announced a quarterly dividend. On October 8, 2026, it reported third-quarter production results and announced the renewal of its share repurchase program.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AG signals