Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG) — closed signal from July 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2026 — -5.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$358.11 Published $411.82 Target $336.91 Window close $381.81 Peak
$345.00 – $359.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$358.11Published — price the day we called it
$411.82Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$381.81Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$336.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-5.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+6.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$336.91
last close inside the window, ended October 18, 2026
Peak price
$381.81
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$411.82
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$345.00 – $359.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$358.11
published July 20, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet mixes steady advertising businesses (search, YouTube) with faster growth from cloud and AI work, supported by plenty of cash and a fair price. The stock is priced lower near short-term support, but positive momentum is uncertain before earnings. New chip news helps long-term AI efficiency, though revenue impact may take years. We see modest upside in the next 0-3 months, but earnings, weaker headlines and higher AI spending could limit gains.

Primary drivers

  • Search, YouTube and cloud each make money in different ways
  • Large cash balances let the company keep investing in AI
  • New chips could make AI cheaper and faster over time
  • Recent price weakness creates short-term upside and event risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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