Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 20, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2026 — +3.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$198.00 – $207.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$206.72Published — price the day we called it

$252.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$243.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$214.13Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 80% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+3.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+17.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$214.13

last close inside the window, ended October 18, 2026

Peak price

$243.37

peak on October 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$252.19

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$198.00 – $207.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$206.72

published July 20, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA benefits from strong demand for its AI-focused chips, healthy profits and plenty of cash. The stock is near a short-term trend line where buyers have stepped in, and heavy trading makes the rebound more believable. Industry news shows broad improvement, but rivals and a shift toward memory suppliers could hurt positioning. Short-term upside looks appealing but carries higher volatility and crowded hopes.

Primary drivers

Big demand for fast AI chips from cloud providers and companies
Strong profit margins and plenty of cash help weather market swings
Recent price action shows recovery near the short-term trend line
Overall chip demand is improving, though competition and supplier shifts raise risk

How it played out

NVDA: rose 17.7% but missed the target

Lyra published the short-term thesis at $206.72 and expected 22% growth toward $252.19. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips, strong profit margins and cash, a price recovery near the short-term trend line, and improving chip demand. It also cited competition and supplier shifts as risks.

The stock peaked at $243.37 on October 6, a gain of 17.7%. That stayed below the $252.19 target, which was never reached during the window. NVDA ended at $214.13 on October 18. The thesis partially played out because the price rose, but the expected gain did not arrive.

What happened during the window

On August 26, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier. On September 28, its board authorized another $150 billion for share repurchases, raising the remaining authorization to $235 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals