Track record · closed signal

Blackstone Inc. (BX) — closed signal from August 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 13, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$172.59 Published $201.86 Target $139.53 Window close $188.42 Peak
$168.99 – $172.92Entry zone — fair-value band
$172.59Published — price the day we called it
$201.86Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$188.42Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$139.53Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 51% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$188.42
peak on September 18, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$139.53
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 15, 2025 – November 13, 2025

The thesis — published August 15, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$201.86
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$168.99 – $172.92
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$172.59
published August 15, 2025
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Blackstone looks appealing because investors are upbeat, the business is strong, and the price action is trending better. Fresh headlines about possible talks with Iress and smart comments on handling risk in private lending point to active deals and discipline. The recent average price is rising and momentum looks steady, so buying small on dips over the next 1-3 months is sensible. Main risks are valuation and funding conditions.

Primary drivers

  • Positive price setup backed by constructive rating and steady trend signs
  • Potential deal upside from ongoing discussions with Iress that add options
  • Insights on private lending growth and careful risk control in that market
  • Strong investor interest paired with durable business fundamentals

How it played out

BX: target was not reached

On 2025-08-15, Lyra published BX at $172.59 with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to a constructive price setup, possible deal upside from Iress talks, private lending growth with careful risk control, and strong investor interest with durable business fundamentals.

Inside the window, BX rose to $188.42 on 2025-09-18, a 9.2% peak gain. That stayed below the $201.86 target. The target was never reached. By 2025-11-13, the stock ended at $139.53. The thesis partly played out early, then missed the full call.

What happened during the window

On October 21, 2025, Blackstone and TPG agreed to buy Hologic in a deal valued at up to $18.3 billion. On October 23, 2025, Blackstone reported third-quarter earnings of $1.52 per share and revenue of $3.3 billion, while net income was $624.9 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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