Track record · closed signal

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BRK-B price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$475.00 – $490.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$485.00Published — price the day we called it

$528.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$507.66Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$498.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$507.66

peak on September 5, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+4.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$498.20

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

July 3, 2025 – October 1, 2025

The thesis — published July 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$528.65

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$475.00 – $490.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$485.00

published July 3, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock is trading cheaper than normal compared with the value of its assets, which can attract bargain hunters. History shows that when the price reaches this low area and trading picks up, shares often rise 5-7%. A recent note said factories now supply one-fifth of sales, giving the firm balance. If the price returns to its usual level, it could approach about $521 within three months while still acting as a steady holding.

Primary drivers

Ultra-low momentum levels have led to 5-7% rebounds eight times before.
Shares are below their 10-year average price-to-assets ratio, giving cushion.
$174 billion cash allows buybacks, helping prevent large price drops.
Growing factory segment means profits now come from several business lines.

How it played out

BRK-B: target was not reached

Lyra published BRK-B at $485 on July 3, 2025, with a short-term thesis for 9% growth toward $528.65. The thesis pointed to low momentum levels that had led to 5-7% rebounds before, a price below the 10-year average price-to-assets ratio, $174 billion in cash that could support buybacks, and a growing factory segment.

Inside the window, the stock rose but stayed below the target. It peaked at $507.66 on September 5, 2025, a 4.7% gain. It never got there. By October 1, 2025, BRK-B ended at $498.20. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On August 2, 2025, Berkshire Hathaway reported second-quarter results, including a $3.76 billion writedown on its Kraft Heinz stake and operating earnings of $11.16 billion. On August 14, 2025, a regulatory filing showed Berkshire held 5 million UnitedHealth Group shares at the end of the second quarter and had also opened smaller positions in Allegion, D.R. Horton, Lamar Advertising, and Nucor.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All BRK-B signals