Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from July 16, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2026 — -16.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$14.17 – $14.71Entry zone — fair-value band

$14.93Published — price the day we called it

$15.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$15.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 13% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-16.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$12.41

last close inside the window, ended October 14, 2026

Peak price

$15.08

peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$15.99

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$14.17 – $14.71

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$14.93

published July 16, 2026

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National shows improving profits and has repeatedly beaten expectations, and its price looks reasonable before the next quarterly report. Recent notes call past results mixed, so the main questions are loan health, deposit competition, funding costs and profit margins. Trading has been light and trend direction is weak, but a drop toward support keeps a short-term recovery possible.

Primary drivers

Sales and profits are moving higher, improving the company's earnings path
Consistent better-than-expected quarters build credibility in execution
The upcoming report can confirm loan quality and margin trends shaping future profits
A moderate valuation offers some protection if results disappoint

How it played out

VLY: the short-term thesis missed

Lyra published VLY at $14.93 with an expected gain of 8%. The thesis pointed to rising sales and profits, repeated better-than-expected quarters, and the upcoming report as a check on loan quality and margins. It also cited a moderate valuation as some protection if results disappointed.

VLY peaked at $15.08 on July 16, a gain of 1%. It stayed below the $15.99 target and never reached it during the window. The stock ended at $12.41 on October 14. The short-term thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On July 23, 2026, Valley reported second-quarter net income of $170.9 million and diluted earnings of $0.29 per common share. On August 25, 2026, Valley and Providence Financial announced a definitive merger agreement.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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