Track record · closed signal

The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) — closed signal from July 16, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2026 — -6.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TJX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$153.28 Published $174.19 Target $142.83 Window close $162.53 Peak
$148.06 – $153.03Entry zone — fair-value band
$153.28Published — price the day we called it
$174.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$162.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$142.83Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-6.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$142.83
last close inside the window, ended October 14, 2026
Peak price
$162.53
peak on July 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 16, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$174.19
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$148.06 – $153.03
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$153.28
published July 16, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TJX sells discounted brand-name clothing and home goods and has shown steady profit gains and repeated earnings beats. Demand for lower-priced shopping stays strong, and recent retail coverage helps sentiment. The stock is oversold and needs steadier buying and clearer price action before a stronger rebound is likely.

Primary drivers

  • Off-price stores attract shoppers trading down to cheaper options
  • Consistent earnings beats show the company executes well
  • Buying inventory when available keeps prices attractive
  • Sector rotation and newer coverage help near-term sentiment

How it played out

TJX: the 14% thesis missed its target

Lyra published TJX at $153.28 with 14% expected growth and a $174.19 target. The thesis pointed to shoppers trading down to off-price stores, repeated earnings beats, flexible inventory buying that kept prices attractive, and newer retail coverage that could help near-term sentiment. It also said the stock was oversold and needed steadier buying before a stronger rebound.

Within the window, TJX peaked at $162.53 on July 29, a 6% gain. It never reached the $174.19 target. By October 14, it had fallen to $142.83, below the published price and entry zone. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On August 19, TJX reported 4% comparable sales growth for its second quarter and raised its full-year profit margin and earnings guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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