Track record · closed signal

Trade Desk Inc (TTD) — closed signal from July 15, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 13, 2026 — -37.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TTD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$19.37 Published $21.69 Target $12.17 Window close $19.99 Peak
$18.60 – $19.40Entry zone — fair-value band
$19.37Published — price the day we called it
$21.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$19.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$12.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-37.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$12.17
last close inside the window, ended October 13, 2026
Peak price
$19.99
peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$21.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$18.60 – $19.40
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$19.37
published July 15, 2026
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Trade Desk looks positioned for a rebound because it has more cash than debt, recent results beat expectations, momentum is improving, and connected-TV plus data partnerships could help growth. A new commercial leader and a broker upgrade reduce short-term concern but the upgrade was only neutral. Declining annual profits, only modest revenue gains, crowded optimism, and sensitivity to the advertising market make a near-term rebound uncertain.

Primary drivers

  • Strong cash position vs. debt offers flexibility
  • Recent results beat expectations, showing execution
  • Connected-TV and data deals can expand the customer base
  • Momentum is improving but ad-market weakness is a risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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