Track record · closed signal

Broadcom Inc (AVGO) — closed signal from July 15, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 13, 2026 — -9.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$396.50 Published $467.87 Target $357.31 Window close $432.73 Peak
$383.00 – $397.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$396.50Published — price the day we called it
$467.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$432.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$357.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 51% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-9.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$357.31
last close inside the window, ended October 13, 2026
Peak price
$432.73
peak on August 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$467.87
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$383.00 – $397.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$396.50
published July 15, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Broadcom mixes chips and infrastructure software that serve cloud, telecom, and device makers. The long Apple chip deal through 2031 makes future sales easier to predict, and high profit margins help results. Heavy customer concentration, debt, and a rich price limit conviction despite strong recent buying and momentum.

Primary drivers

  • Rising demand for AI networking and custom chips
  • Long Apple chip deal extended through 2031
  • High-margin software selling to infrastructure customers
  • Momentum improving but offset by debt and high valuation

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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