Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from July 15, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 13, 2026 — -6.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$133.13 Published $145.70 Target $124.53 Window close $141.27 Peak
$128.69 – $133.64Entry zone — fair-value band
$133.13Published — price the day we called it
$145.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$141.27Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$124.53Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-6.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+6.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$124.53
last close inside the window, ended October 13, 2026
Peak price
$141.27
peak on September 11, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$145.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$128.69 – $133.64
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$133.13
published July 15, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Citigroup shows signs of improvement: sales and trading picked up, the dividend was raised, and a big share buyback was announced. These moves improve the outlook at a reasonable price, but near-term recovery is limited because reported earnings are inconsistent, some figures conflict, and the business is sensitive to the economy and short-term selling pressure.

Primary drivers

  • Quarterly sales and trading activity have strengthened
  • Dividend was increased and a large buyback was announced
  • Valuation looks fair with potential to recover
  • Conflicting earnings figures and economic sensitivity

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All C signals