Track record · closed signal

Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) — closed signal from July 14, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2026 — -22.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$6.04 – $6.27Entry zone — fair-value band

$6.52Published — price the day we called it

$6.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$6.67Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$5.05Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 34% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-22.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$5.05

last close inside the window, ended October 12, 2026

Peak price

$6.67

peak on July 17, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 14, 2026

Predicted growth

+7%

over the measurement window

Target price

$6.65

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$6.04 – $6.27

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$6.52

published July 14, 2026

Confidence

63%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Orchid Island is trading below what the company says its net assets are worth, and planned income plus a monthly dividend give the shares short-term support. The update makes the asset value more visible during a weak period. However, changes in mortgage yields and funding costs can quickly reduce that asset value, and past earnings were poor. The firm uses leverage, so gains and losses can be larger than usual; this looks like a small, income-focused trade rather than a core long-term holding.

Primary drivers

Shares cheaper than the company's preliminary asset value
Expected quarterly income gives a clearer value reference
Monthly dividend helps total return in the near term
Price fell recently while trading volumes stayed about normal

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ORC signals