Track record · closed signal

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX) — closed signal from July 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2026 — +14.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EQX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$9.77 Published $11.13 Target $11.20 Window close $14.08 Peak
$9.25 – $9.75Entry zone — fair-value band
$9.77Published — price the day we called it
$11.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$14.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$11.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 24 days.

At window close
+14.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+44.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$11.20
last close inside the window, ended October 12, 2026
Peak price
$14.08
peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
24

The thesis — published July 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$11.13
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$9.25 – $9.75
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$9.77
published July 14, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Equinox shows notable production gains and a clear corporate event with the proposed Orla deal, which could make the company bigger. Recent activity and proxy backing lower some deal uncertainty, and improving price action helps the case for recovery after a pullback. Still, the merger needs approvals and integration, earnings have weakened, and gold price swings make the outlook uncertain.

Primary drivers

  • Deal with Orla would make the company larger and more diversified
  • Recent mine output supports the story of rising production
  • Proxy support makes the proposed deal less risky
  • Improving price action suggests the pullback could reverse if it holds

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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