Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from July 14, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2026 — -7.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$142.25 Published $155.68 Target $131.92 Window close $143.56 Peak
$136.61 – $141.56Entry zone — fair-value band
$142.25Published — price the day we called it
$155.68Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$143.56Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$131.92Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 9% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-7.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+0.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$131.92
last close inside the window, ended October 12, 2026
Peak price
$143.56
peak on July 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$155.68
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$136.61 – $141.56
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$142.25
published July 14, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Citigroup reported better-than-expected profits and showed improving returns, which supports the plan to reshape the business and lift its valuation. A new international savings product widens offerings and the earnings event drew market attention. However, momentum is weak, past results were uneven, and credit or expense setbacks could limit gains in the near term.

Primary drivers

  • Quarterly profits came in above expectations
  • Improving returns support the restructuring story
  • New international savings product broadens offerings
  • High market attention around earnings event

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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