Track record · closed signal

First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) — closed signal from July 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2026 — -1.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$17.31 Published $20.07 Target $16.99 Window close $22.19 Peak
$16.50 – $17.30Entry zone — fair-value band
$17.31Published — price the day we called it
$20.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$22.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$16.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 36 days.

At window close
-1.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+28.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$16.99
last close inside the window, ended October 12, 2026
Peak price
$22.19
peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
36

The thesis — published July 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$20.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$16.50 – $17.30
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$17.31
published July 14, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

First Majestic has a clear near-term advance with construction permits at Santa Elena, higher production guidance and a bigger development plan. The company has enough cash to execute, and recent price action is more favorable than peers. However, inconsistent earnings, a full valuation and silver price swings plus project spending risk mean upside is likely limited.

Primary drivers

  • Santa Elena permits open access to new underground ore
  • Raised production guidance points to more output
  • Healthy cash position supports the development program
  • Recent price action is stronger than most peer miners

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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