Track record · closed signal

Procter & Gamble Company (PG) — closed signal from July 13, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 11, 2026 — +2.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$142.86 – $146.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$148.07Published — price the day we called it

$158.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$153.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$151.23Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+2.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+3.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$151.23

last close inside the window, ended October 11, 2026

Peak price

$153.68

peak on July 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$158.74

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$142.86 – $146.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$148.07

published July 13, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Procter & Gamble sells everyday household and personal-care goods that people keep buying regularly, which supports steady profits and less sensitivity to market swings. Shares are cheaper than recent levels but downward pressure and a high valuation make a big re-rating unlikely. Planned job cuts aim to reduce costs tied to tariffs, keeping the near-term opportunity defensive.

Primary drivers

Everyday products that drive steady repeat purchases
Margins tend to be steady and sales less tied to market swings
Planned cost cuts to offset higher tariff-related expenses
Reliable profit delivery across business cycles

How it played out

PG: shares rose, but the target was not reached

Lyra published the PG thesis on July 13, 2026, at 148.07, with expected growth of 8%. The thesis pointed to repeat purchases of everyday products, steady margins, sales that were less tied to market swings, and planned cost cuts for tariff-related expenses. It expected a defensive near-term opportunity, while noting downward pressure and a high valuation.

The shares reached 153.68 on July 28, a peak gain of 3.8%. That stayed below the 158.74 target, which was never reached during the window. PG ended the period at 151.23. The price rose from publication and retained part of that gain, but the published growth expectation did not play out. This was a partial result, not a hit.

What happened during the window

On July 14, 2026, P&G declared its quarterly dividend. On July 29, 2026, the company reported fiscal-year net sales growth of 3% and fourth-quarter net sales growth of 2%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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