Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from July 13, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 11, 2026 — -6.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$133.64 – $138.59Entry zone — fair-value band

$138.70Published — price the day we called it

$151.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$143.56Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$129.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 35% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-6.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+3.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$129.64

last close inside the window, ended October 11, 2026

Peak price

$143.56

peak on July 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$151.80

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$133.64 – $138.59

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$138.70

published July 13, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Citigroup shows signs of better revenue and profit delivery, and the stock looks inexpensive relative to those improvements. Many more shares are trading than usual, which supports a possible bounce, but downward pressure and sensitivity to the overall economy mean the recovery is not yet confirmed. Stronger banking and trading activity could help short-term sales, offset by credit, funding and geopolitical risks.

Primary drivers

Higher activity from institutional banking could lift revenues
More trading and deal fees would add near-term revenue
Recent quarter showed earnings improvement and better execution
Price is lower near short-term support, suggesting a possible bounce

How it played out

C: the 10% growth thesis missed

Lyra published the short-term thesis on July 13 at 138.70 and expected 10% growth. The thesis pointed to better revenue and profit delivery, stronger institutional banking activity, more trading and deal fees, improved execution, and a possible bounce near short-term support. It also cited credit, funding, economic, and geopolitical risks.

The stock peaked at 143.56 on July 14, a gain of 3.5%. It stayed below the 151.80 target throughout the window. By October 11, it had fallen to 129.64. The expected recovery did not play out.

What happened during the window

On July 14, 2026, Citigroup reported second-quarter revenue of $24.8 billion and net income of $5.8 billion. On August 13, 2026, Citi announced an agreement to acquire Kard Financial.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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