Track record · closed signal

The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) — closed signal from July 13, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 11, 2026 — -9.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TJX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$148.06 – $152.04Entry zone — fair-value band

$152.72Published — price the day we called it

$172.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$162.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$138.76Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 49% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-9.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$138.76

last close inside the window, ended October 11, 2026

Peak price

$162.53

peak on July 29, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$172.03

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$148.06 – $152.04

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$152.72

published July 13, 2026

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TJX runs popular discount stores that do well when shoppers look for value. Sales and profits have been steady, and recent buying by big funds has increased interest. The stock recently fell and looks oversold, but negative price action and heavy selling mean a bounce is not proven. High valuation, tariffs and higher costs limit the short-term upside.

Primary drivers

Shoppers choosing cheaper options helps off-price retailers like TJX grow
Reliable delivery of earnings keeps revenue and profit expectations steady
Recent buying by big funds has pushed market interest higher
Holds up when consumers cut spending, so sales are more stable

How it played out

TJX: early gain fell short of the target

On July 13, 2026, Lyra published a short-term thesis for 13% growth from $152.72. The thesis pointed to shoppers seeking cheaper options, steady sales and profits, fund buying, and resilient demand when consumers cut spending. It also noted weak price action, heavy selling, valuation, tariffs, and higher costs as limits on the expected bounce.

TJX rose to $162.53 on July 29, a peak gain of 6.4%. It never reached the $172.03 target. The stock then fell and ended the window at $138.76 on October 11. The early rise partly matched the expected bounce, but the full thesis missed because the target was not reached and the stock finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On August 19, 2026, TJX reported second-quarter comparable sales growth of 4% and raised its full-year profit margin and earnings guidance.

TJX Reports Q2 FY27 Results

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TJX signals