Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI) — closed signal from August 15, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 13, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 15, 2025
Northwest Bancshares looks solid because profits and costs are moving the right way, and the price action is improving. Q2 profit climbed from $4.8M to $33.7M compared to last year. About 75% of savings from the Penns Woods deal should arrive this year. Many see the shares trading at nearly half of fair value. Recent average price is rising, and there are signs that lots more people are buying than usual. Watch merger progress and interest rates.
Primary drivers
- Q2 profit jumped versus last year, signaling stronger earnings power
- Savings from the Penns Woods deal are on schedule this year
- Price trend looks healthier, and buying interest is picking up versus usual
- Shares trade far below many estimates of what the business is worth
How it played out
NWBI: target was not reached
Lyra published NWBI on 2025-08-15 at $12 with expected growth of 16% and a target of $13.68. The thesis pointed to Q2 profit rising from $4.8M to $33.7M versus last year, about 75% of Penns Woods savings arriving this year, a healthier price trend, stronger buying interest, and shares trading far below many estimates of business value.
Inside the 2025-08-15 to 2025-11-13 window, NWBI rose to $12.81 on 2025-09-05. That was a 6.8% peak gain, but it stayed below $13.68. It ended at $11.74. The thesis partially played out on price, but the target was missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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