Track record · closed signal

UP Fintech Holding Ltd (Tiger Brokers) (TIGR) — closed signal from August 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 13, 2025 — -7.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TIGR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.81 Published $14.48 Target $10.01 Window close $13.55 Peak
$10.60 – $11.10Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.81Published — price the day we called it
$14.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$10.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-7.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+25.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$10.01
last close inside the window, ended November 13, 2025
Peak price
$13.55
peak on August 25, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 15, 2025

Predicted growth
+34%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.48
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$10.60 – $11.10
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.81
published August 15, 2025
Confidence
86%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

We see TIGR riding strong buying interest, with far more buyers than usual and very upbeat mood. A major bank upgrade helps, tied to Hong Kong opening more to crypto. Recent results were strong: sales rose 55% and profits jumped 147% compared to last year. In a market willing to take risk, more trading can lift activity. Best bought on dips near the recent average price, but it is a foreign-listed, jumpy stock, so keep positions small and use sell rules.

Primary drivers

  • Citi upgrade; Hong Kong opening more to crypto boosts business outlook
  • Q1 sales up 55% and profits up 147% versus last year, showing momentum
  • Price strength with lots more buyers than usual in recent days
  • Very positive mood (100) could keep short-term buying interest high

How it played out

TIGR: the target was not reached

Lyra published TIGR on 2025-08-15 at $10.81. The thesis expected 34% growth to $14.48. It pointed to a Citi upgrade, Hong Kong opening more to crypto, Q1 sales up 55%, profits up 147%, strong buying interest, and very positive mood.

Inside the window, TIGR rose to $13.55 on 2025-08-25, a 25.4% peak gain. That was the high, and it stayed below the $14.48 target. By 2025-11-13, it ended at $10.01. The thesis partly played out early, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On Aug. 27, 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported that UP Fintech had reported second-quarter earnings per share of nearly 23 cents and revenue of $138.7 million. The article also said the company added 39,800 new customers in the second quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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