Track record · closed signal

Broadcom Inc (AVGO) — closed signal from July 10, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 8, 2026 — -10.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$400.80 Published $472.94 Target $360.14 Window close $432.73 Peak
$385.00 – $398.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$400.80Published — price the day we called it
$472.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$432.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$360.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-10.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$360.14
last close inside the window, ended October 8, 2026
Peak price
$432.73
peak on August 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$472.94
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$385.00 – $398.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$400.80
published July 10, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Broadcom looks strong near term because AI chip sales jumped and its software business brings steady revenue. Meta and other cloud builders are expanding compute, which helps chip demand. However, the stock is priced richly, carries significant debt, insiders have sold some shares, and many investors already own it, so a pullback is a real risk.

Primary drivers

  • AI chip sales have recently grown much faster than before
  • Software business provides steady, repeatable revenue
  • Big cloud builders expanding compute increases chip needs
  • Consistent quarterly earnings boost execution credibility

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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