Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 9, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2026 — +16.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$198.00 – $205.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$204.13Published — price the day we called it

$244.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$243.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$237.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 96% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+16.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+19.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$237.47

last close inside the window, ended October 7, 2026

Peak price

$243.37

peak on October 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 9, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$244.96

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$198.00 – $205.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$204.13

published July 9, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is growing fast from demand for its AI and data-center products, with strong profit margins and plenty of cash on hand. Trading activity near the short-term trend is supportive, and AI-focused ETFs keep investor interest high. Still, recent weaker earnings momentum, a downgrade, and big price swings make the short-term outlook cautious.

Primary drivers

AI and data-center demand driving much faster sales and profits
High profit margins and net cash help limit downside risk
Robust trading activity supports the early recovery in price
ETF interest boosts semiconductor demand while a downgrade tempers conviction

How it played out

NVDA: price rose 19.2%, but the target was missed

Lyra published a short-term thesis at 204.13, expecting 20% growth and a 244.96 target. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence and data-center demand, high profit margins, net cash, supportive trading activity, and fund interest. It also noted weaker earnings momentum, a downgrade, and large price swings.

The price peaked at 243.37 on October 6, a 19.2% gain, but stayed below 244.96 and never reached the target. It ended the window at 237.47 on October 7. The thesis largely played out on price direction and expected growth, but the published target was missed. This was a partial hit.

What happened during the window

On August 26, 2026, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, and data-center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%. On September 28, 2026, its board authorized an additional $150 billion for share repurchases. The remaining authorization rose to $235 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals