Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from July 9, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2026 — -1.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$357.35 Published $407.38 Target $350.50 Window close $384.48 Peak
$348.00 – $358.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$357.35Published — price the day we called it
$407.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$350.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 54% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-1.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$350.50
last close inside the window, ended October 7, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 9, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$407.38
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$348.00 – $358.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$357.35
published July 9, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet has steady ad and cloud businesses, strong profit margins, and cash on the balance sheet. A recent dip sits near its short-term price trend while an investment in Proxima Fusion offers a long-term upside chance but won't move near-term results. Low trading volume, insiders selling, uneven recent earnings, and higher AI spending make the setup cautious.

Primary drivers

  • Ads, cloud, and AI products give steady revenue growth
  • Strong profit margins and cash create financial flexibility
  • Consistent earnings beats show operating strength and predictability
  • Proxima Fusion stake offers long-term upside but little short-term impact

How it played out

GOOGL: rose 7.6%, but never reached the target

Lyra published a 14% growth thesis from a price of 357.35, with a target of 407.38. The thesis pointed to steady revenue growth from ads, cloud, and artificial intelligence products, strong profit margins and cash, consistent earnings beats, and limited short-term impact from the Proxima Fusion stake.

GOOGL rose to 384.48 on August 5, a peak gain of 7.6%. The target was never reached. The shares ended the window at 350.50, below the publication price and well below the target. The expected rise only partially played out.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24%. Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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