Track record · closed signal

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — closed signal from July 9, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2026 — -2.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORCL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$141.02 – $148.96Entry zone — fair-value band

$147.55Published — price the day we called it

$170.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$170.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$143.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 98% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-2.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+15.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$143.56

last close inside the window, ended October 7, 2026

Peak price

$170.70

peak on September 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 9, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$170.57

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$141.02 – $148.96

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$147.55

published July 9, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Oracle looks like a short-term rebound play, not a clear long-term trend. Demand for AI cloud services and defense cloud contracts keeps the growth story alive, and recent earnings were solid. But the stock recently fell a lot, and negative momentum, meaningful debt, and insiders selling limit conviction over the next few months despite upside potential.

Primary drivers

Strong demand for AI-related cloud services
Defense cloud contracts widen the potential customer base
Recent earnings show the company can execute
Big recent pullback opens rebound possibility if stabilizes

How it played out

ORCL: rebound peaked at $170.70, then faded

Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis at $147.55, with 16% expected growth. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence cloud services, defense cloud contracts, recent earnings, and the possibility of a rebound after a large pullback. It also noted negative momentum, debt, and insider selling.

During the window, ORCL reached a peak of $170.70 on September 8, a 15.7% gain. That peak was above the $170.57 target, but the ledger did not record the target as reached. The stock ended the window at $143.56. The rebound largely played out, but it did not hold.

What happened during the window

On September 10, 2026, Oracle reported quarterly revenue of $19.3 billion and cloud revenue of $11.6 billion. On September 12, Oracle said Larry Ellison had canceled his stock-sale plan and that no shares had been sold under it.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ORCL signals